Post by 3bid on Oct 27, 2016 2:21:25 GMT -5
Why Trump can still win the election
Postmedia Network
Friday, October 21, 2016
There is a 92% chance Hillary Clinton will be the next president of the United States, if you are to believe the latest polls from the New York Times.
But don't count The Donald out just yet.
He may be trailing Clinton in the polls – according to the Times, Clinton has a 45.8% national polling average compared to Trump’s 39.5% – but as any good political junkie knows, polls can be wrong and anything can happen.
Back in March, Trump received a massive boost when one notable forecasting model predicted he would win by a landslide. In fact, he was given a 87%-99% chance of taking over the Oval Office using the Primary Model by Helmut Norpoth from Stony Brook University.
The problem is, this model only uses primary results to predict the election winner and doesn't take into account anything that happens after the fact – such as a scandal surrounding vulgar comments recorded several years prior.
But don't worry Trump fans, there are more reasons why you shouldn't hang up your "Make America Great Again" hats just yet.
iPaper's Andrew Hammond suggests looking toward another respected academic forecasting model. Professor Alan Abramowitz's "time-for-change" model has successfully predicted the results of U.S. presidential elections for almost three decades – and this time around it is forecasting a Trump win.
The model is based on three predictive items: the growth rate of the GDP in the second quarter of an election year; the incumbent president's approval rating mid-year in the Gallup polls; and whether or not the incumbent party has held the White House for one or more presidential terms.
Using this model, Trump would secure an estimated 51.4% of the vote.
However, iPaper notes the forecast could be wrong this year for two reasons. The model assumes both candidates have the ability to unite their party after primary season and secondly, assumes both candidates will run a perfect campaign to maximize their potentials. It's fair to say neither candidate would receive a passing grade in those categories.
What Trump needs now to secure the U.S. presidency is an "October surprise" - the unicorn of elections. Trump needs some kind of earth-shattering revelation to swing the polls dramatically in his favour.
Another Wikileaks bomb could help boost Trump, but as Fortune magazine points out, it's unclear if there are any hidden "smoking guns" in those emails or if voters even care. However any negative focus toward Clinton and away from Trump at this point is useful.
If this election has taught us anything, another twist could be lurking around the corner – just in time for decision day on Nov. 8.
www.petroliatopic.com/2016/10/21/why-trump-can-still-win-the-election
